全球水资源供需矛盾的加剧导致不同国家在国际河流水资源使用问题上的矛盾冲增。目前解决争端的最有效的途径对水资源进行合理的分配。然而在水资源分配过程中,不可避免的对部分地国家分配过量的水,对部分国家分配过少的水,因此容易在水量分配上产生冲突。通过建立动态演化博弈模型分析各国对水量分配的演化和稳定策略,得到相关结论:水量相对较少国家将采用强烈抗议或冲突的形式获取更多的水量,而水量相对较多国家为了能共同开发国际河流水资源,会逐渐同意放弃多余水量。分析结果表明,利用演化稳定策略调整各国家之间的分水量,可以有效地化解流域国家间的冲突。
The conflicts on different countries in international river water use are increasing impulse under the intensification of the global water supply and demand .Currently ,the most effective way to solve the problem is to allocate water resources .However ,in the water allocation process ,it is inevitable to allocate excess water or too little water to some countries ,which is easily to generate conflicts between countries .By establishing an evolutionary game model to analyze the replicator dynamics and evolutionary stable strategy of the countries ,the main conclusion is obtained :the game system's EES is that the countries with too little water will select outbreak conflicts to get more water ,and the countries with excessive water will agree to give up water .The results show that the evolutionary stable strategy of adjusting the amount of water between countries can effectively resolve conflicts between basin countries .