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中文摘要：
在分析国内外干旱预警研究现状的基础上,分析农业干旱成灾过程胁迫、成灾过程,指出国内现有农业干旱预警研究存在的不足。运用灾害社会工程学理论,综合分析孕灾环境、致灾因子和承灾体、灾情等四方面对旱情的可能影响,探讨未来农业干旱预警发展方向和研究方法,提出农业干旱预警体系建设的基本思路,为进一步开展干旱预警提供参考,为政府减轻和预防干旱灾害提供决策依据。
英文摘要：
In order to effectively prevent and reduct the losses of drought,and to provid scientific evidence for local government making decision and arranging policy,current situation of study on drought early warning at home and abroad were reviewed in this paper.Based on the analysis of the progress of drought stress and drought development,the existing problems of drought study were analyzed.The possible effects of disasters breeding environment,formative factor,disaster-affected body and hazards on drought development were analyzed by using system theory of disaster.The research direction and research method of drought were also discussed and a new thought were put forward to establish the system of drought early warning.It can also provide a reference for better study on drought early warning.
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