中文摘要：

Jinghui Li was born in 1984. He is currently a Ph.D. student in School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University. His research interests now are in the areas of risk and safety assessment, and reliability engineering. E-mail： sophialjh @ dse.buaa.edu.cn Corresponding author.Rui Kang was born in 1966. He is currently chair professor in School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University. His research interests include reliability design and experiment based on physics of failure, prognostics and health management, logistics support, systems engineering, and network reliability. E-mail： kangrui@buaa.edu.cn Ali Mosleh is currently a professor of mechanical engineering at the University of Maryland, College Park, USA. He is a Member of the U.S. National Academy of Engineering. His research interests include risk and safety assessment, reliability anal- ysis, and decision analysis. E-mail： mosleh@umd.edu Xing Pan was born in 1979. He received his Ph.D. degree from Beihang University. He is currently an associate professor in School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University. His re- search interests include knowledge systems engineering and system risk analysis. E-mail： panxing@ buaa.edu.cn