本文基于主要国家1980—2012年截面数据,使用动态面板广义矩估计(GMM—DPD)实证检验了经济规模、经常账户差额、财政稳健度、使用惯性等因素对储备货币选择的影响程度。结果表明,各币种成为储备货币除与宏观经济基础因素相关外,使用惯性及网络外部性也是关键影响因素。人民币要走出去,除要夯实内部宏观基础外,还需把握外部契机。
We tested the factors influencing major international reserve currencies empirically with GMM - DPD based on the panel data covering the year from 1980 to 2012. The factors consist of GDP ratio, current account ratio, fiscal soundness, financial openness, the inertia and so on. The outcome indicates that, reserve currencies distribution not only related to basic macroeconomic factors but also to inertia and network externality. It' s necessary to enhance the internal economic fundamentals as well as to seize external opportunities for RMB going abroad.