中文摘要：

根据多孔沥青路面体积模量的衰变过程，计算了龚帕斯预测模型的3个参数，提出了体积模量随时间衰变的预测模型，并分析了空隙率随时间的变化规律。分析结果表明：对于使用期为12年的多孔沥青路面，描述体积模量衰变的理论曲线与体积模量衰变的预测曲线基本一致，理论值与预测值的最小误差率为0．126％，最大误差率为1．997％；空隙率随时间呈对数减小，并在空隙率小于16％后减小的趋势趋于平缓。可见，模型的预测结果符合体积模量的衰变规律，可应用于多孔沥青路面的体积模量衰变特性分析。

英文摘要：

According to the reduction process of bulk modulus for porous asphalt pavement, the three parameters of Gompertz prediction model were calculated, a prediction model of the reduction of bulk modulus was proposed, and the change rules of air void content with time were analyzed. The result indicates that the theoretical curve and predicted curve of bulk modulus reduction are basically consistent for porous asphalt pavement with 12 years＇ service life. The minimum error rate between the predicted value and the theoretical value is 0. 126%, and the maximum error rate is 1. 997 %. The air void content decreases logarithmically and the decreasing trend is smooth as the air void content is less than 16%. Therefore, the prediction model is feasible to study the bulk modulus reduction of porous asphalt pavement. 3 tabs, 4 figs, 12 refs.