中文摘要：

针对已有非常规突发事件情景表示模型与构建方法在支持多层次用户过程中所表现出来的不足,本文首先给出情景要素的形式化表示;在此基础上,给出基于粒计算非常规突发事件情景层次模型;给出情景泛化算法,实现低层次情景到高层次情景的泛化过程;最后通过一个算例探讨模型的应用过程,并论证其科学性及可行性。研究结果表明,基于粒计算给出非常规突发事件情景层次模型,可有效实现基于复杂、不确定情景信息快速生成满足不同层次应急管理用户需求的不同粒度情景结构。

英文摘要：

To cover the shortages of existent scenario representation models and scenario construction methods for unconventional emergency in being used to support multi-level emergency management personnel,the formal representation of scenario elements is discussed firstly.Then,the hierarchical scenario model of unconventional emergency based on granular computing is proposed.Afterwards,the scenario generalization algorithm is put forward to realize the scenario generalization processes from low-level scenarios to up-level scenarios.In the end,an example is analyzed to illustrate the application process and to prove the scientificalness and the feasibility of the proposed model.The results show that the hierarchical scenario model of unconventional emergency based on granular computing can generate scenario structures of different granularities which can be used to support multi-level emergency management personnel on the basis of complex and uncertain scenario information.