中文摘要：

基于热带太平洋SST和850 hPa风资料,分析了西太平洋暖池东界和东太平洋暖池南界的年际和年代际变异,并探讨了赤道太平洋纬向风异常对西太平洋暖池纬向运移的驱动作用以及热带东北太平洋经向风异常对东太平洋暖池经向变动的影响。在此基础上,研究了西太平洋暖池和东太平洋暖池变异对ENSO循环的联合影响,并提出了一个联合影响指数。结果表明,当联合指数为1.6时,有可能出现一次新的El Nino事件。这为ENSO的形成和演变机制研究提供了一个新的线索。

英文摘要：

Based on the tropical Pacific SST and 850 hPa wind data, interannual and interdecadal variations of both the eastern boundary of the western Pacific warm pool （WPWP） and the southern boundary of the eastern Pacific warm pool （EPWP） are analyzed, and both the WPWP zonal displacement forced by the equatorial zonal wind anomaly and the meridional displacement effected by the meridional wind anomaly over the northeast Pacific Ocean are discussed. Furthermore from the analyses, the effects on ENSO cycle given jointly by the variabilities of both WPWP and EPWP are investigated and a joint effectiveness index is defined. It is shown that when the index becomes 1.6, a new ENSO cycle probably starts. Therefore a new clue is given for studies of ENSO formation and evolution.