中文摘要：

能源消费所产生的碳排放是经济发展过程中不可避免的副产品,而且碳排放在大气中的积累会使全球气候不断变暖,因此经济增长与碳排放之间的关系一直是学术界关注的焦点。传统的基于EKC曲线的经济计量学方法一般是对经济与排放历史数据的相关关系研究,不能很好地反映二者之间的动力学机制。为此本文在内生经济增长模型Moon-Sonn基础上进行改进,首先从理论上得到了最优经济增长率与能源强度之间存在倒U曲线关系的必要条件,即能源的产出弹性小于0.5;接着将投入产出分析得到的反映技术进步下的能源强度代入模型,对中国未来经济增长路径进行了预测,同时得到了最优增长路径下的能源消费走势,进而通过对能源消费结构和不同能源品种的碳排放系数的预测和估计,以及对分品种能源碳排放的汇总计算得到了中国未来能源消费所产生的总的碳排放走势。结果显示,在当前技术进步速率下,我国分别在2043年和2040年达到能源消费高峰和碳排放高峰。此外,本文对能源强度不同下降速率对能源消费高峰的影响进行模拟发现,当降速为4.5%~5%时,能源高峰将出现在2040年前,此时的人均GDP为10万元左右,与OECD国家的高峰时收入一致;而且分3种情景模拟了可再生能源替代政策对碳排放高峰的影响,发现提高可再生能源的比重可以明显降低碳排放量,但对高峰年份到来的时间影响甚微。

英文摘要：

The CO2 emission brought about by energy, especially the fossil fuels consumption, is an inevitable by-product in the process of economic development. With the increasing accumulation of greenhouse gases （particularly the CO2）, the climate has been becoming wanner. Therefore, the relationship between economic growth and CO2 emission has been paid extreme attention in the academia. Although the conventional methodology of econometrics has the advantage of testifying their correlation based on historic data, it lacks the ability of reflecting the dynamic mechanism between energy input and economic growth, which has two counteracting forces that more energy input will improve the productivity and increase the final output on one hand, but on the other hand it will also require more expenditure on energy purchase, so less remained for capital accumulation hence will deduce the final output. To deal with the weakness of econometrics methodology, this paper introduced an endogenous economic growth model. By modifying the Moon-Sonn model, we obtained the necessary condition of the existence of inverse U-shaped relationship between optimal growth rate and energy intensity, that is, the elasticity of energy in production function should be less than 0.5. Empirically, we predicted the energy intensity under present technology progress rate, which is reflected by the rate of energy efficiency improvement, and put it into the model hence it was predicted of the economic growth path with the according energy consumption under the path; Here the Input-Output analysis was applied to predict the decrease rate of energy intensity, which is 4.23%, lower than the eleventh ＂five-year plan＂ objective of 4.365%. Finally, the CO2 emission was obtained by aggregating emission from each type of energy, which requires the prediction on energy consumption structure and the estimation of CO2 emission coefficients of various types of energy. Projection results show that the peak of energy consumption and carbon emission will appear i