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中文摘要：
为了解决可信网络中网络管理和安全监控审计的问题,通过对可信网络连接框架（TNC）和网络态势感知体系（CSA）的研究,针对可信网络安全中多数据源确定性与不确定性的特点,提出了基于集对分析的网络安全态势评估与预测方法 SPSAF.SPSAF首先采用基于特征库的方法审计网络连接信息、系统管理信息、系统监控信息和应用服务信息,然后综合改进的熵权法和层次分析法提取安全态势指标权重,再利用集对分析方法对安全态势指标进行评估得到网络安全态势值,进而绘制网络安全态势图,最后采用Box-Jenkin模型基于安全态势值预测网络安全趋势.仿真实验结果表明SPSAF能够准确有效地反映当前及未来的网络安全态势,有助于管理员有效地制定网络安全策略,并能及时发现风险,迅速准确地调整策略和实施应对措施,提供更全面可靠的网络安全保障.
英文摘要：
To solve the problems of network management and security monitoring and auditing in trusted network,by researching the framework of trusted network connect（TNC） and the architecture of cyberspace situational awareness（CSA）,in view of the certain and uncertain characteristics of multi-source information in trusted network security,a new security situational awareness and forecast based on set pair analysis（SPA） called SPSAF is proposed.SPSAF audited network connection information,system management information,system monitoring information and application service information by the method based on feature base.The security situational indexes were extracted by the method of improved entropy method（EM） and analytic hierarchy process（AHP）.The SPA method was utilized to assess these indexes to get the value of network security situation,and the security-situation-graph of network was drawn.The time series of the assessment results was analyzed via the Box-Jenkin model to forecast the network security trend.The simulation experiment results show that SPSAF is accurate and effective to reflect the network security situation and its trend,which can help the administrator to make security policies efficiently,to discover risks timely,to adjust policies and take relevant protective or emergency measures quickly and accurately,and to ensure overall and reliable security.
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