中文摘要：

利用中国境内红河流域23个气象站点1960．2007年的逐日降水数据，分析流域强降水事件频次和强度的变化特征及其相关影响。结果表明：①强降水频次和强度在空间上表现出由东南向西北逐渐递减的趋势，流域下游的河口-金平-绿春-江城一带为高值区，上游的巍山-南涧-弥渡一带则为低值区。②强降水频次和强度的变化趋势存在空间差异，趋势增加的站点大多分布在李仙江上游、元江中上游和藤条江流域，趋势减少的站点大多分布在李仙江下游、元江下游和盘龙河流域。③从流域整体来看，在d=0．05的显著性水平下，近48年来强降水频次和强度没有明显的上升趋势，频次和强度的趋势变化幅度分别为0．26days／10a和0．18mm·day^-1／10a；研究时段内频次和强度在时间变化上没有显著突变点。④基于相关统计数据分析强降水变化的影响，表明近20年间强降水频次和强度的增加，增大了局部地区滑坡泥石流、洪涝灾害的风险，河流泥沙含量也随之增加。

英文摘要：

The temporal and spatial variations in frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events and their impacts were analyzed based on the daily precipitation data of 23 meteorological stations over the Red River Basin from 1960 to 2007. The results showed that the spatial distribution for intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall gradually reduces from southeast to northwest, namely, high value areas are distributed in Jiangcheng- Luchun-Jinping-Hekou while low value areas are in Weishan-Nanjian-Midu. The trends for frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall eventd exhibited spatial differences： most of the regions with positive trends are distributed in the upper Lixianjiang and Yuanjiang rivers, as well as Tengtiao river basins, while the regions with negative trends were found in the lower Lixianjiang and Yuanjiang rivers, and Panlong river basins. In the past 48 years, both frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall in the Red River Basin presented an upward trend but not significant at a = 0.05 significance level, frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall increased at rates of 0.26 days/10a and 0.18 mm-day~/10a respectively. No significant abruption points were detected for both frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall during the period 1960-2007. The upward trend of heavy rainfall in the past 20 years increased the risk of floods, landslides, debris flows disaster, and has led to the sediment increase in the Red River Basin.