中文摘要：

本文以滦河流域6个子流域为研究区域,依据降雨频率分级,对不同量级的降雨和对应径流序列分组,进行基于可变模糊集理论的演变特征分析。结果表明,各子流域降雨序列1980年后较1980年前仅发生量变,而对应的年径流序列却发生了渐变式质变,说明人类活动是导致滦河流域径流明显减少并发生渐变式质变的主要因素。通过实际降雨量和径流量的变化过程证实了质变与量变定理,说明其降雨序列演变特征参数可以量化水文序列。

英文摘要：

According to the classification of the frequency of precipitation,the rainfall series and corresponding runoff series were grouped,and the evolution characteristics of different group of rainfall series and corresponding runoff series were analyzed based on variable fuzzy set theory for 6 sub-basins of the Luanhe River basin.The comparison of the data sequences before and after 1980 shows that the rainfall series change only in quantity,while the corresponding runoff series has gradually undergone a qualitative change.It indicates that,human activities play an important role in affecting the runoff reduction and in the change of runoff series.The actual change processes of rainfall and runoff were adopted to verify the quantitive and qualitative change theorem,which shows that the parameters characterizing the evolution of rainfall series could quantify the hydrological series.