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Asian climate change under 1.5-4 ℃ warming targets
  • ISSN号:0001-5733
  • 期刊名称:《地球物理学报》
  • 时间:0
  • 分类:P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]
  • 作者机构:[1]National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China, [2]Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China, [3]Climate Change Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China, [4]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • 相关基金:Acknowledgments This research was jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFA0600701), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41675069), and the Climate Change Specific Fund of China (CCSF201731).
中文摘要:

在三种 RCP 情形下面基于 18 个 CMIP5 模型的模拟,这篇文章在全球温暖的上下文在亚洲上在吝啬的温度和降水和他们的极端调查变化 1.5-4 的目标吗?

英文摘要:

Based on simulations of 18 CMIP5 models under three RCP scenarios, this article investigates changes in mean temperature and precipitation and their extremes over Asia in the context of global warming targets of 1.5-4 ℃, and further compares the differences between 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ targets. Results show that relative to the pre-industrial era, the mean temperature over Asia increases by 2.3 ℃, 3.0 ℃, 4.6 ℃, and 6.0 ℃ at warming targets of 1.5 ℃, 2 ℃, 3 ℃, and 4 ℃, respectively, with stronger warming in high latitudes than in low latitudes. The corresponding enhancement in mean precipitation over the entire Asian region is 4.4%, 5.8%, 10.2%, and 13.0%, with significant regional differences. In addition, an increase in warm extremes, a decrease in cold extremes, and a strengthening in the variability of amounts of extreme precipitation are projected. Under the 1.5 ℃ target, compared with the climate under the 2 ℃ target, the mean temperature will be lower by 0.5-1 ℃ over Asia; the mean precipitation will be less by 5%-20% over most of Asia, but will be greater by about 10%-15% over West Asia and western South Asia; extreme high temperatures will be uniformly cooler throughout the Asian region, and the warming in extreme low temperatures will decrease significantly in high latitudes of Asia; extreme precipitation will be weaker over most of Asia but will be stronger over West Asia and western South Asia. Under the 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ warming targets, the probability of very hot weather (anomalies greater than 1σ, σ is standard deviation), extremely hot weather (anomalies greater than 3or), and extremely heavy precipitation (anomalies greater than 3σ) occurring will increase by at least once, 10%, and 10%, respectively, compared to the reference period (1861-1900).

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期刊信息
  • 《地球物理学报》
  • 北大核心期刊(2011版)
  • 主管单位:中国科学院
  • 主办单位:中国地球物理学会 中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所
  • 主编:刘光鼎
  • 地址:北京9825信箱
  • 邮编:100029
  • 邮箱:actageop@mail.igcas.ac.cn
  • 电话:010-82998105
  • 国际标准刊号:ISSN:0001-5733
  • 国内统一刊号:ISSN:11-2074/P
  • 邮发代号:2-571
  • 获奖情况:
  • 首届国家期刊奖,第二届国家期刊奖,中国期刊方阵“双高”期刊,第三届中国出版政府奖
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  • 被引量:31618