中文摘要：

我国的出口贸易带来的直接和间接二氧化碳（CO2）排放量占全国CO2排放总量的比重已高达47．8％（2007年）。出口退税政策是调整出口贸易的重要措施。实施出口退税的减免政策可以实现CO2的减排。基于此，本文从行业的角度出发。首先利用投入产出技术选取了制造工北、钢铁工业、化学工业和纺织工业为目标减排部门，并以政策作用在四个目标部门以实现到2020年相同减排目标作为政策情景（M—S，F—S．C—S和T—S情景）。利用可计算一般均衡模型（CGE）模拟不同政策情景对我国经济和社会的影响。研究结果表明：在相同减排水平下。无论从GDP指标还是从就业指标。或者从居民福利来看。对钢铁行业实施出口退税减免的政策情景均是这几个情景中的最优选择。政策效果最差的属纺织业情景。嗣时。各种政策情景均会使农村居民的福利损失更大。进一步拉大城乡差距，因此政策实施时应考虑配套措施以保护农村居民福利水平。

英文摘要：

Direct and indirect CO2 emissions deriving from China＇ s export trade reaches as high as 47.8% of total CO2 emissions （2007）. Export tax rebate policy is one of the important measures to adjust export trade structure and realize CO2 emissions reduction. Based on this background, the present paper, firstly from the perspective of industry and using input-output technology, selects machinery industry, ferrous industry, chemical industry and textile industry as four target industries needed policy acted on, yielding four policy scenarios rebating export tax to these industries respectively for the same level of CO2 emissions reduction （ M - S, F - S, C -S and T -S） ; then it applies computable general equilibrium （CGE） model to simulate economic and social effects under different policy scenarios. The results show that, whether seeing from the GDP index or from employment index, or from household welfare, the F - S scenario of implementing policy on ferrous industry should be the optimal choice, while the worst situation is from T - S scenario. At the same time, all policy scenarios would result in rural household welfare loss larger, further widening gap between urban and rural areas; therefore the corresponding measures to protect the rural residents living level should be considered when implementing the export tax rebate policy.