中文摘要：

现有研究通常只估计人口年龄结构通过不同机制对实际汇率产生的综合影响，并根据综合影响主观推测其内部各传导机制的影响方向和相对强弱。这种推测缺乏有力的实证支持。本文采用1994～2011年中国对142个国家（或地区）的面板数据同时估计了人口年龄结构对人民币实际汇率产生的综合影响和通过不同机制产生的单独影响。实证研究发现：（1）中国劳动人口占比主要通过需求结构机制和“巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应”机制影响人民币实际汇率，而经常项目机制不显著；（2）中国劳动人口占比上升会通过需求结构机制导致人民币实际贬值，通过“巴拉萨一萨缪尔森效应”机制导致人民币实际升值；（3）中国劳动人口占比上升通过“巴拉萨一萨缪尔森效应”机制对人民币实际汇率产生的正向影响大于其通过需求结构机制产生的负向影响。并最终导致人民币实际汇率升值。

英文摘要：

Existing researches usually estimate combined effect of demography on real exchange rate through different mechanisms, and speculate the directions and relative strength of internal transmission mechanisms based on combined effect. This conjecture is lack of strong empirical support. This paper examines the internal transmission mechanisms of population age structure on RMB real exchange rate based on China＇s panel data o- ver 1994 ~ 2011 periods. The results show that： （1） demand structure mechanism and ＂Balassa - Samuelson effect＂ mechanism are main channels that population age structure affects RMB real exchange rate, current ac- count mechanism is not significant; （2） the shares of working age has significant negative effect on RMB real exchange rate through demand structure mechanism, and positive effect through ＂Balassa - Samuelson effect＂ mechanism; （3） the ＂Balassa - Samuelson effect＂ mechanism is predominate of the three channels, leading to China＇s shares of working age has combined positive effect on RMB real exchange rate.