中文摘要：

为评价李痘病毒入侵中国的危险程度及可能造成的影响,采用Maxent生态位模型,根据现有分布点及目标地区的环境变量运算出预测模型,再结合地理信息系统Arc GIS绘制李痘病毒在中国的适生等级预测图,将适生等级分成高适生区、中适生区、低适生区和非适生区;并以多指标综合评价体系为标准,从传入的可能性、定殖的可能性、扩散的可能性、受害寄主的经济重要性和病毒危险性的管理难度等5个准则层、共18个指标层因子,对该病毒在中国的入侵风险进行了定性和定量的分析。结果表明,李痘病毒在中国的适生区主要集中在华东和华南地区,经纬分布于101.93°-122.75°E,19.60°-40.76°N之间,占中国行政区划面积的25%-50%,适生范围较广。李痘病毒在中国的入侵风险指标值R值为2.49,属于高风险的有害生物,鉴于该病毒在中国暂无分布记录,建议在进境检疫中对其实施严格检疫,必须通过2种以上检测手段（必须包括血清学和分子生物学）进行排查及2年以上的隔离试种,以防止该病毒进入中国进一步蔓延传播。

英文摘要：

To evaluate the invasion risk and potential consequences brought by the Plum pox virus, we predicted the potential distribution of Plum pox virus in China using the maximum entropy （Maxent） ecological niche models combined with geographic information system （ArcGIS） based on its current distribution and the environment variables of target region, which divided the territory into four parts ： high suitable region, medium suitable region. From 5 aspects of the possibility of incoming, colonization, diffusion, the victim host economic importance and difficulty of risk management, including 18 indicators, this article has carried the virus invasion risk analysis on the qualitative and quantitative level with the standard of integrated multi index evaluation system. The results showed that the potential distribution of Plum pox vi- rus mainly located in the eastern and southern China. The geographical coordinates range were among the area of 101.93° -122.75°E, 19.60°-40.76°N, accounted for 25%-50% area of China, the suitable region is broader. The invasion risk index value （R） of Plum pox virus in China was 2.49 which belonged to high risk levels of harmful organisms. Since there is no national record of PPV in China, strict quarantine measures including both serological and molecular biologicCal detection was absolutely necessary. And more than two years isolated planting were also required to prevent the spreading to China.