中文摘要：

基于塔里木河流域水资源量及利用水平资料,结合《塔里木河流域工程与非工程措施五年实施方案》,通过Mann-kendall单调趋势检验及未来趋势变化Hurst指数检验分析了近20 a来塔里木河流域耕地面积变化特征,计算探讨了该流域现状水平年（2010年）以及规划年（2020年）可承载的最大灌溉面积、现状水平年灌溉面积超载情况、不同来水频率下规划年规划灌溉面积超载和生态水保证情况。结果表明：（1）1990-2010年流域耕地面积显著增加,且在未来一段时间将持续增加。（2）现状水平年流域可承载最大灌溉面积为129.06万hm2,除和田河外其它均超载,超载面积共计43.33万hm2。（3）规划年在25%来水频率下,除了开都-孔雀河流域其他均不超载,但是相等规划灌溉面积在枯（特枯）水期会出现超载现象,规划灌溉面积的制定还要参照枯（特枯）水期流域能承载的最大灌溉面积;在50%、75%及90%来水频率下,流域规划灌溉面积超载严重,管理部门应认识到灌溉面积规划中存在的问题,提出更加科学的规划方案。（4）在25%、50%、75%及90%等4种来水频率下2020年流域生态水分别可保证95.7%、81.2%、61.4%、44.2%,表明在规划年的枯水期生态水供应有一定压力。本研究为遏制塔里木河流域自然生态和环境恶化趋势提供了基础依据,对流域以水资源量来定人工绿洲规模、优化水资源利用规划与配水制度意义重大。

英文摘要：

The changes of cultivated land area in the Tarim River Basin in recent years were analyzed with Mann-kendall monotonic trend test and future trend change Hurst index based on water resources quantity and water resources utilization level data in Tarim River Basin and combined with the Measures of Tarim River Basin Project and Non-project Implementation Plan for Five Year. The following factors were calculated for four source streams and mainstream of the Tarim River Basin： maximum irrigation area in2010 and 2020,irrigation area overload situations in 2010,planning irrigation area overload situations and ecological water guarantee situations at different runoff frequencies in 2020. The results showed that：（1） The cultivated land area increased significantly during 1990-2010,and it will keep increasing in the following years.（2） The maximum irrigation area of the Tarim River basin in 2010 is 129. 06 × 10^4hm2.All basins except for the Hotan River Basin are overloaded,and total overload area is 43. 33 × 10^4hm2.（3）In 2020,all basins except for Kai-Kong River Basin are not overloaded at 25% runoff frequency,but equal planning irrigation area will be overloaded in dry season. The formulation of planning irrigation area should refer to the maximum irrigation area that the basin can carry in dry season; planning irrigation area of the basin is seriously overloaded at 50%,75% and 90% runoff frequency,respectively,so management department should recognize the problems in planning irrigation area and put forward more scientific planning schemes.（4） Guarantee rates of ecological water in the basin at water frequencies of 25%,50%,75% and 90% are 95. 7%,81. 2%,61. 4%,44. 2%,respectively,suggesting that in the planning year there is a certain pressure on the ecological water supply during the dry season. This study provides a basis for the containment of the ecological and environmental deterioration of the Tarim River Basin,and it is also significant for the determination of artificial oasis scale of the