中文摘要：

研究区域农作物化肥施用的碳排放趋势演进规律与减排潜力对于合理制定农业碳减排政策具有重要意义。基于＂全国农产品成本收益资料汇编＂、＂中国统计年鉴＂和农业部＂小麦、玉米、水稻三大粮食作物区域大配方与施肥建议＂中各地区的三大粮食作物产量、化肥投入类型及其数量等数据,采用碳排放系数法,测算并分析2005-2013年中国三大粮食作物化肥施用碳排放时空演变与碳减排潜力。结果表明：1江苏、安徽、宁夏、甘肃和山西的玉米,湖北、陕西和宁夏的小麦,辽宁、山东、江苏、浙江、陕西和湖南的水稻,其化肥施用的单位产品碳排放量下降明显;2黑龙江、吉林和新疆的玉米,云南和河南的小麦,吉林、广西和云南的水稻,其化肥施用的单位产品碳排放量不降反升;3与测土配方施肥情形相比,在2013年,江苏、陕西、湖北、贵州、广西和云南的玉米,山西、内蒙古、陕西、甘肃、宁夏、新疆、河北、四川、云南和江苏的小麦,湖南、江苏、海南、安徽、云南、广东和广西的水稻,其化肥施用的单位产品碳排放量偏高;4全国玉米化肥施用碳减排潜力约574万t CE,集中在黑龙江、辽宁、吉林、山东、内蒙古、陕西、云南、贵州和广西;5全国小麦化肥施用碳减排潜力约475万t CE,集中在河北、江苏、山东和河南;6全国水稻化肥施用碳减排潜力约206万t CE,集中在湖南、广东、广西、江苏和江西。最后,结合实地调查,本文提出应在粮食作物化肥施用碳减排潜力大的区域,通过政策激励和市场化运作,提高测土配方施肥技术推广的效应。

英文摘要：

Researching the carbon emissions trend evolution rule and carbon reduction potential in regional crop fertilizer application is of great significance for formulating reasonable agricultural carbon reduction policy. Based on actual outputs and fertilizer inputs and types for three main grain crops in China we used the carbon emissions coefficient method to estimate and analyze the space- time evolution of carbon efficiency and carbon emissions reduction potential in Chinese grain crop fertilizer consumption from 2005 to 2013. We found that the amount of carbon emissions per unit product in the Jiangsu,Anhui,Ningxia,Gansu and Shanxi maize-growing area,Hubei,Shanxi and Ningxia wheat planting and Liaoning,Shandong,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Shanxi and Hunan rice- growing area decreased significantly. Carbon emissions per unit product in the Heilongjiang,Jilin and Xinjiang maize-growing area,Yunnan and Henan wheat- growing area and Jilin,Guangxi and Yunnan rice- growing area increased. Compared with soil testing and formula fertilization,carbon emissions per unit product were high in 2013 in the Jiangsu,Shanxi,Hubei,Guizhou,Guangxi and Yunnan maize-growing area,Shanxi,Neimenggu,Shanxi,Gansu,Ningxia,Xinjiang,Hebei,Sichuan,Yunnan and Jiangsu wheat- growing area,and Hunan,Jiangsu,Hainan,Anhui,Yunnan,Guangdong and Guangxi rice- growing area. The carbon emission reduction potential of the maize- growing in China is 5.74 million t CE and focuses on Heilongjiang,Liaoning,Jilin,Shandong,Neimenggu,Shanxi,Yunnan,Guizhou and Guangxi. The carbon emission reduction potential of the wheat- growing in China is 4.75 million t CE,focusing on Hebei,Jiangsu,Shandong and Henan. The carbon emission reduction potential of rice- growing in China is 2.06 million t CE,focusing on Hunan,Guangdong,Guangxi,Jiangsu and Jiangxi.Combined with field investigation and analysis we propose potential carbon emission reductions in food crop cultivation through policy incentives and market operations in order to improve the effect of soil testing and fertilizer app