中文摘要：

应用SWAT模型对滦河流域进行了天然径流模拟,以承德、三道河子和滦县3个水文站的还原径流量对模型进行了参数率定与模型验证,基于模型模拟结果分析了下垫面变化对径流的影响。结果表明：滦县水文站率定期与验证期月径流模拟值与实测值的相关系数、确定性效率系数均在0.90以上,相对误差控制在5.00%左右,表明模型具有较高的模拟精度;与1985年相比,2000年土地利用的变化主要是林地面积减少与耕地、草地面积增加,导致径流量增加了2.91%,而年内降水量的增加则强化了下垫面变化对径流的影响程度。

英文摘要：

The SWAT model was used in the Luanhe river basin to carry on the natural runoff simulation.The model parameters were calibrated and the model was validated using the reverted flow data from the three hydrologic stations of Chengde,Sandaohezi and Luanxian.The results show that during the calibration and validation period of the Luanxian hydrologic station,the coefficient of determination and Nash-Suttcliffe efficiency coefficient of simulated and observed values is greater than 0.90;the relative error is about 5.00%.The verification of model shows higher accuracy,and the model is applicable in the study area.Compared with 1985,the changes of land-use are the decrease in forest area and the increase in the area of arable land,grassland in 2000,which leads to runoff increased by 2.91%,while the increase in precipitation during the year had strengthened the influence of the underlying surface change on runoff.