中文摘要：

利用黑河流域东部子水系中上游10个水文站60年径流、泥沙实测资料,应用数理统计方法分析了黑河流域东部子水系中上游各条河流控制水文站径流量和输沙量年际变化特征,应用径流量累积均值曲线法对黑河干流出山口莺落峡水文站2015、2020年径流量进行预测。结果表明：（1）黑河上游各站2001~2012年径流量比历年均值平均偏大10.5%。区间除马营河除外的4条较大支流历年径流量在锯齿型变化过程中呈现出逐步增大的趋势。中游莺落峡、高崖、正义峡3个水文站逐年径流量变化趋势相对应,高崖和正义峡径流过程线接近且有交叉现象,充分表明中游区域地表水和地下水转换频繁并十分复杂;（2）流域内札马什克、祁连、莺落峡、高崖、正义峡5个水文站2001~2012年各站时段平均输沙量均明显小于历年（1978~2012年）平均值,分别偏小-0.3%、-9.7%、-63.9%、-51.8%、-43.3%。分析得出了黑河流域东部子水系中上游水沙变化规律,对于保护和开发利用黑河流域水资源、改善黑河流域生态环境、促进黑河流域综合治理等具有重要作用。

英文摘要：

The interannual change characteristics of the runoff and sediment runoff at the controlled stations were analyzed with mathematical and time interval statistics based on the observed data from 10 stations on the upper and middle reaches of the eastern Heihe River Basin in 60 years, and the runoff at the Yingluoxia Station of the Heihe River outlet in 2015 and 2020 was forecasted with cumulative mean of runoff curve. The results show： （1） The runoff at the upper reach stations increased by 10.5% than the annual mean during 2001-2012. The mean annual runoff in the 4 larger branches （except Mayinghe River） increased gradually in serrated change process. The annual runoff change process at the 3 stations of Yingluoxia, Gaoya and Zhengyixia in middle reaches corresponded each other. The runoff process values of Gaoya and Zhengyixia approached closely and intersected. （2） From 2001 to 2012, the mean sediment runoff at the stations of Zhamashike, Qilian, Yingluoxia, Gaoya and Zhengyixia were less than the annual mean （1978-2012）, the scope are -0.3%,-9.7%,-63.9%,-51.8%,-43.3% respectively. The change rule of runoff and sediment in upper and middle reaches of the eastern Heihe River Basin was obtained, which is very important for in the Heihe River Basin to protect and develop water resources, improve ecological environment and advance integrated management.