中文摘要：

[目的]文章以提升耕地复种为切入点,从区域自然资源禀赋与利用的角度研究我国粮食产量潜力,能为国家科学优化水土资源配置,推进农业供给侧结构性改革提供有益参考。[方法]引入收获面积差的概念,在作物单产与耕地面积保持不变的前提下,从提升复种的角度估算我国收获面积差及其产量潜力。[结果]2005年左右网格尺度研究结果表明：第一,不同水资源分配情景下,中国可收获面积差在0.135亿~0.363亿hm~2（约合2亿~5.4亿亩）之间波动;第二,与不同农业土地利用水平下可能获得的作物产量相结合,该收获面积差最高可转化成7.4亿t的产量潜力;第三,最实际情况下,通过水资源、作物类型、灌溉措施3方面配置,我国拥有0.135亿hm~2（2亿亩）收获面积差,其可转化为1.17亿t的产量潜力,相对于现实产量5.97亿t,约增产19.6%。第四,长江中下游地区同时拥有好的水热条件与相对优良的灌溉设施,而该地区较大的收获面积差与产量潜力说明其水土资源利用还有较高的调整优化空间。[结论]粮食总产受作物单产、耕地面积、复种指数等3个方面综合影响,但前两大因素对我国粮食产量潜力的贡献已经非常有限。

英文摘要：

Total grain production is determined by three aspects： crop yield,cropland area,and cropping frequency.While the potential in crop yield and cropland area is very limited in China for increasing its grain production.This study introduced the concept of harvested area gap（HAG） and estimated its potential for grain production in China,given the crop yield and cropland area keep in a stable condition.The grid level estimation around year 2005 suggested that：（1） the attainable HAG in China ranged from 13.5 to 36.3 million ha,depending on the selected water allocation scenario.（2） While combining such HAG with the crop yield scenarios that reflected the status of agricultural land use,the attainable HAG could bring about a 740 million ton grain production potential in the most optimized situation.（3） in the most realistic scenario that considered water allocation,crop choice and irrigation,China had a 13.5 million ha attainable HAG,which corresponded to a 117 million ton grain production potential,relative to a ＋ 19.6% against the current available grain production of 579 million ton.（4） the Lower Yangtze region had the largest potential to increase harvested area due to triple-cropping,sufficient water available,and a good irrigation infrastructure.However,its relatively higher attainable HAG and production potential indicated the necessity of better land and water use optimization to be carried out in this region.This study explored the grain production potential in China from the perspective of resource endowment and utilization,indicating that the agricultural ’supply-side structural reform’ in China could be achieved by optimizing the resource reallocation of land and water.