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中文摘要：
近年来南方地区季节性干旱频繁发生,对农业生产造成了严重影响。分析其演变特征和发生规律,能为应对全球气候变化背景下制订抗旱减灾对策提供理论依据。该研究利用中国南方15个省（市、区）的气象台站降水资料,选择采用标准化降水指数（SPI）为干旱指标,计算了南方地区最近58a（1951-2008年）各月干旱指数,在此基础上分析了全年及各季季节性干旱的站次比（发生干旱站数与总站数之比）和干旱强度的年际变化。研究结果表明：干旱程度在时间尺度上呈不同程度增加趋势;干旱的季节性特征为春旱和秋旱有加重的趋势,而夏旱和冬旱有减轻的趋势。季节性干旱空间演变特征表现为：长江中下游地区、西南地区、华南地区等各区域季节性干旱变化与整个南方总体干旱变化表现基本一致。在当前气候变化背景下,我国南方干旱整体上呈现对农业生产的不利影响加重的趋势。研究和验证表明标准化降水指数（SPI）能很好地体现季节性干旱的年际变化特征。
英文摘要：
Seasonal droughts have frequently taken place in the south of China in recent years,resulting of a serious impact on agricultural production.Therefore,analyzing the evolution characteristics and occurring rules are important to provide theory evidence for instituting policies about disaster prevention and mitigation under global climate change.Using standardized precipitation index（SPI） to describe drought,with precipitation data from weather stations in 15 provinces in the south of China,monthly drought indices in the recent 58yrs（from 1951 to 2008） were calculated,annual and seasonal change in station proportion of drought frequency were analyzed,which is the ratio of stations with drought occurring to overall stations,and the same for drought intensity.The results showed that drought in the south of China had increased with different magnitudes in the study period.Drought has become more serious in spring and autumn,though it＇s the opposite in summer and winter.In the different zones of the study region,drought changes in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River,in Southwest China and in South China,were similar to the whole study region.Under the background of climate change,the drought change was bad for agricultural production.Comparing with other drought indices,SPI can catch basic features of the annual variations characteristics of seasonal drought in the south of China.
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