中文摘要：

这研究的主要目的是用 Xin'anjiang 降雨流量模型预报流入到洪泽·莱克。在 Huaihe 盆的洪泽·莱克的上面的区域被划分成 23 亚盆，包括洪泽·莱克的表面。洪水预报上的水库和门的影响以一个实际、简单的方法被考虑。与一个一天时间步骤，线性、非线性的 Muskingum 方法被用于隧道洪水路由，并且最少平方的回归模型在洪水预报被用于即时修正。代表性的历史的数据为模型刻度被收集。为每亚盆的水文学模型参数个别地被校准，因此 Xin'anjiang 模型的参数为不同亚盆是不同的。预报系统的这洪水在 2005 在大洪水的即时模拟被使用，当时，结果是令人满意的与从洪水的测量数据相比。

英文摘要：

The main purpose of this study was to forecast the inflow to Hongze Lake using the Xin＇anjiang rainfall-runoff model. The upper area of Hongze Lake in the Huaihe Basin was divided into 23 sub-basins, including the surface of Hongze Lake. The influence of reservoirs and gates on flood forecasting was considered in a practical and simple way. With a one-day time step, the linear and non-linear Muskingum method was used for channel flood routing, and the least-square regression model was used for real-time correction in flood forecasting. Representative historical data were collected for the model calibration. The hydrological model parameters for each sub-basin were calibrated individually, so the parameters of the Xin＇anjiang model were different for different sub-basins. This flood forecasting system was used in the real-time simulation of the large flood in 2005 and the results are satisfactory when compared with measured data from the flood.