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中文摘要：
基于BDI决策MAS-CA模型，利用1998年、2003年、2008年和2013年土地利用数据，对大连金石滩2020年和2030年城镇区域面积进行模拟，Kappa系数达到0．635。研究结果表明：①BDI决策补充了MAS-CA模型决策的不足，使得模型整体框架进一步完善，模拟结果具体准确，精度达到89．1％。②金石滩城镇用地呈现出依附海岸线和交通线的格局，向海岸线靠拢，城镇用地在中部区域比较集中且城镇用地有向周围区域扩张的趋势，葡萄沟村、河咀子村、庙上村、什字街村转变最大。③从金石滩城镇格局的模拟结果发现，海岸线因素引导着城镇格局的转变方向。滨海地区的生态环境容易被破坏，政府应该采取措施寻找土地利用与生态环境保护的完美平衡点。
英文摘要：
Based on MAS-CA model improved by BDI decision model, using the land use data of 1998, 2003, 2008 and 2013, this article simulated the urban landscape pattern in 2020 an d 2030 of Jinshitan, Dalian ,which is the typical urban area of coast of the Yellow Sea. The Kappa coefficient is 0.635. The results show that：1） The BDI model supplement the deficiency of the MAS-CA model. After joining BDI decision, the MAS-CA model framework is further improved. Thus makes the results more accurate and specific. The precision reaches 89.1%. 2）The model simulation results show that the urban landscape adjoins to the coastline and the traffic line in Jinshitan area. The urban land moves closer to the coast line. Urban land concentrated in the central region of the area, and obviously expanded into the surrounding area. Land use transformations were most heavily happened in the village of Putaogou, Hejuzi, Miaoshang, Shizijie.3） There are many factors affecting land use conversion. The distance to the coastline is the leading factor of the trend of urban landscape pattern trans- formation in Jinshitan area. Because of the ecological environment of the coastal area is easily destroyed in the coastal area, the government should take measures to find the perfect balance point between environment protection and economic development.
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