受气候变化和人类活动的综合影响,水文序列是一种非线性、非平稳序列.启发式分割算法是一种新的适用于非线性、非平稳序列分析方法,本文采用传统的有序聚类分析法和启发式分割算法分别对漳泽水库站天然年径流序列和年降水量进行分析比较.结果表明,传统的方法检测出水文序列突变点较少,而启发式分割算法可检测出多个突变点;该站径流量和降水量突变存在同步性;分割后的子序列变差系数比原序列的小,均值也相差很大;并结合气候变化和人类活动对突变进行了成因分析;进一步说明启发式分割算法适合于对非线性、非平稳水文序列进行分析.这一结论为漳泽水库水文分析计算和优化调度提供了科学依据.
Affected by climate change and human activities, hydrological time series is a kind of nonlinear and non-stationary series. Heuristic segmentation algorithm is a kind of new analysis further proved that heuristic segmentation algorithm could be used to deal with nonlinear and non-stationary hydrological time series. The current research will be greatly helpful sound and effective water resource management in Zhangze reservoir.