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中文摘要：
本文利用状态空间模型方法建立了2000年以来中国的季度可变参数IS曲线和LM曲线，并在此基础上计算出中国的动态货币政策乘数，从实证的角度分析中国近年来货币政策效应，并进一步估计了2000年以来中国的动态总需求曲线。得出结论：自2000年以来中国的货币政策效应在不断提高；而中国总需求曲线的形状趋于平坦，从定量的角度说明了中国近年来出现的“高增长、低通胀”的原因。
英文摘要：
This paper constructed the quarterly varying parameter IS Curve and LM Curve since 2000 by the State Space Model. On the basis of that, the authors calculate the dynamic monetary policy multiplier of China, analyze the effect of monetary policy in China empirically, and estimate the dynamic aggregate demand curve since 2000 in China. The conclusions are that： the effect of monetary policy in China has been improving; the aggregate demand curve in China is in a fiat shape since 2000, which illuminates the reason for the recent phenomenon of ＂high-growth and low-inflation＂ appeared in China quantitatively.
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