中文摘要：

在当前的农业干旱事件应对和管理中,常仅根据气象干旱结果,被动采取抗旱措施,造成应对操作相对滞后,极易对农业造成较大损失,威胁区域粮食安全。通过将气象干旱与抗旱能力相结合,提出了一个更符合实际旱情发展的评估方法。基于降雨与土壤墒情指标,通过模糊综合评价法,评估了灌区实时旱情;通过分析未来供需水情势,预估了灌区的水源盈缺关系;最后,耦合实时旱情与水源情势指标,构建了灌区干旱预警指标和一套较为完整且简单实用的干旱预警体系。以泾惠渠灌区为例开展了干旱预警实例研究,预警结果与泾惠渠管理局官方监测结果基本一致,验证了预警结果的准确性和可靠性。研究成果对干旱半干旱地区灌区,特别是多水源灌区的干旱预警工作具有一定的参考价值。

英文摘要：

For agricultural drought management, the meteorological drought indices method is currently used to cope and soil moisture content indices, first, the real - time drought situation in the irrigation area was evaluated by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Then, water balance for irrigation area was checked by exploring the potential relationship between water supply and demand. was built based on the real -time drought situation and future Finally, an integrated drought early warning system water resource situation to provide more reliable and comprehensive results of the practical drought resisting ability. Furthermore, with a case study of Jinghuiqu Irrigation Area （JIA） in 2013, a comparison was implemented between the early warning results and official monitoring results of Jinghuiqu Administrative Bureau. The results indicated that the drought early warning system was reasonable. The proposed method may give a reference to drought early warning system in arid and semi - arid area, especially in the multi -water resources area.