中文摘要：

基于渗流理论结合电气性质研究连锁故障发展机理,探索故障发展路径。首先构建了支路故障渗流概率模型,结合支路健康度指标、重要度指标综合得到支路故障停运概率模型,可以辨识正常运行状态下系统脆弱支路、预测故障运行状态下系统故障支路。其次,构建了系统连锁故障路径综合后果指标,结合路径发生概率构建路径风险评估模型,全面诊断分析连锁故障可能发展路径。最后,以IEEE 39节点系统的算例验证了所述方法的有效性。

英文摘要：

The cascading failure mechanism is studied based on percolation theory combined with electrical properties to explore the fault development path.Firstly,a branch fault percolation probability model is built.By combining with the branch health degree index and importance index,the branch outage probability model is obtained,which could identify a fragile branch in normal operation state of the system and predict a fault branch in fault running state.Secondly,the comprehensive consequence index of the cascading failure path is established.Combined with the path probability,apath risk assessment model is built,which could diagnose and analyze the cascading failure path.Finally,the validity of this method is verified using an IEEE 39 bus system.