中文摘要：

用Mann—Kendall统计检验方法对太湖流域6个气象站点1954～2006年降水、气温、相对湿度、日照时数的变化趋势和时空特征进行了分析，结果表明：50余年来太湖流域降水量呈较弱的增加趋势，冬季和夏季降水增加显著；空间变化趋势表现为北部地区降水量呈下降趋势，东南部地区呈上升趋势。年平均相对湿度表现为微弱的下降趋势，M—K倾斜度值为-0．99％／10a；春、秋季相对湿度都显著减小，而夏季减小幅度较弱，冬季减小现象不显著。年平均气温呈现明显上升趋势，并表现出最低气温比最高气温增高趋势显著的特点，冬、春季增温显著；空间分布变化趋势为以平湖和溧阳为中心的两个地区上升趋势最小，以上海为中心地区上升幅度较大。年日照时数的下降趋势幅度较大，以溧阳为中心的西部地区最为明显，四个季节日照时数都呈减少的趋势；空间分布变化趋势表现为全流域呈减少趋势，由西向东减少幅度依次减小。气候变暖，降水将进一步增加，必然导致径流也呈增加趋势，在一定程度上加大了太湖流域洪涝灾害发生的可能性。分析成果有助于进一步研究气候变化对太湖流域水资源和防洪安全的影响，也将为太湖流域未来气候变化情景的构建提供科学依据。

英文摘要：

In recent years, the occurrence of extreme events such as floods is rising throughout the worldwide. The better understanding on the relationships among climate change, human activities and the flood occurrence will allow water authorities to make more rational decisions on flood control and management. The annual and seasonal precipitation, temperature, relative humidity and sunshine duration in the Taihu Basin from 1954 to 2006 were analyzed to obtain the spatial-temporal characteristics of longterm trend by using the Mann-Kendall trend test and departure curve method. The results showed that the air temperature and precipitation all exhibited an increasing tendency, and the Mann-Kendall slopes are 0.27℃/10 a and 1.97 mm/10 a, respectively; the relative humidity and sunshine duration showed a decreasing tendency,and the Mann-Kendall slopes are -0.99%/10 a and -7.8 h/a, respectively during the past 53 years. In addition, the results indicate that there is a large seasonal difference of variation for trend in the Taihu Basin, and there is remarkable warming trend in winter, and great increasing of precipitation in summer and winter. In spring and autumn, the intensity and extent of relative humidity variation is larger than that in other seasons. The sunshine duration in four seasons decreased but the magnitude of trend in spring is weak. The magnitude of precipitation increases from northern to southeastern parts,the long-term trend decreases in northern parts and increases in southeastern area. The air temperature remarkably increased over the basin, but strongly in northeastern and southern parts. The long-term trend of sunshine greatly decreased in the study area and the amplitude of the sunshine decreases from western to eastern parts. The results will be helpful to further investigate the impact of the climate change on water resources and flood prevention in the Taihu Basin. It will also provide scientific references for the development of future climate change scenarios in the Taihu Basin.