中文摘要：

将滑坡的变形看作时间、月降雨量、气温的函数，使用泰勒级数建立它们的函数关系，并将泰勒级数展开至二次项，建立卡尔曼滤波模型，用于滑坡变形的预测预报。实例计算表明，卡尔曼滤波模型的拟合效果和预测效果良好，可用于土质滑坡变形的短期预测预报。

英文摘要：

In this paper, the deformation of the landslide is regarded as the function of the time and the rainfall of every month and the temperature. Taylor series is used to determine the relationship of the deformation to the time and rainfall of every month and temperature; Taylor series is expanded to quadratic terms, and a Kalman filter model is developed to forecast the deformation of the landslide. An example of calculation shows that the fitted effect and forecast effect of the model are better, and that the model can be used to forecast the short-term deformation of the terrene landslide.