中文摘要：

为预测穿越富水岩层区域隧道的涌水量,依据工程实例提出随机性数学模型和确定性数学模型进行涌水量预测的方法。通过理论解析公式和数值解等确定性数学模型对比分析隧道单位长度涌水量,并讨论了围岩渗透系数、隧道半径、地下水位高度、隧道含水层厚度对隧道涌水量的影响。研究表明,除佐藤邦明公式外,各影响参数有较强的敏感性。单位长度涌水量随各影响因素的增大而增大,数值解的增长趋势最为显著,佐藤邦明公式的增长趋势最不明显。研究成果可为富水区隧道突涌水灾害治理提供理论支持。

英文摘要：

For the prediction of water bursting into tunnels in the water rich area,the method of stochastic mathematical model and deterministic mathematical model were put forward. Theoretical analytic formula and numerical solution were proposed to analyze the water inrush volume of unit tunnel length,and the influence of permeability coefficient of surrounding rock,tunnel radius,underground water level and aquifer thickness of tunnel on water inflow were researched. It shows that all the influential parameters have stronger sensitivity,except for Sato Kuniaki Formula. And the water inrush of unit length increases with the increase of various influential factors,the growth trend of the numerical solution is the most significant among those formulas while the growth trend of Sato Kuniaki is not obvious. The results can provide theoretical support for the harnessing of water inrush tunnels in water rich area.