中文摘要：

在前人研究的基础上，探讨时间因素在牛鞭效应中的影响。将经典熵模型和时间因素结合起来，创造性地构造了基于牛鞭效应的“时效熵”模型。对模型进行了仿真验证，发现熵模型对应的数据与牛鞭效应的大小具有秩一致性。根据熵模型的标示进行仿真发现：随着订货提前期跨度的拉长，牛鞭效应加剧。

英文摘要：

Based on the former researches, this article investigates the influence of timeliness on bullwhip effect. Combining classic entropy model with the timeliness factor, this paper creates a timeliness entropy model based on bullwhip effect. Then we test the model using the simulation analysis and find out that the data of entropy model and the bullwhip effect have rank consistency. According to this creative entropy model, we conclude that the bullwhip effect will intensify as extension of the lead time.