中文摘要：

将ARIMA（P,1,0）模型应用到极移随机性部分序列的预报中,提出了利用最小二乘外推与ARIMA（P,1,0）的组合模型来对整体极移序列进行短期预报。并与其他方法对极移1~5天的短期预报精度进行了对比,结果证明了该模型在极移短期预报上的有效性与优越性。

英文摘要：

The necessity of the short-term prediction of polar motion and the current common prediction approach are discussed.ARIMA（P,1,0） is used in prediction of stochastic components in polar motion before,non a combinational model of least squares extrapolation and ARIMA（P,1,0） is given to forecast the polar motion from one to five day in the future.Through accuracy analysis,the efficiency and superiority of this model is proved.