中文摘要：

基于CMIP5多全球气候模式数值模拟结果,包括空间分辨率0.5°的逐月历史气候数据和RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下未来气候变化预估数据,利用潜在蒸散发和降水量构建能够表征地表干湿状况的湿润指数,对中国东部季风区7个典型区1901—2100年干湿变化趋势进行了模拟和分析.结果表明：各分区在1901—2005年湿润指数均呈现下降趋势,其中珠江、长江、淮河流域变化较为平缓,黄河、海河流域和东北地区波动较大.可见在过去的100多年中,东部季风区整体上呈现不同程度的干旱化.在2006—2100年不同温室气体排放情景下,各分区的湿润指数呈现不同程度的波动,除了黄河上游地区湿润指数呈现增长趋势外,其他区域没有明显的变湿趋势.

英文摘要：

Global climate model data,including historical climate simulation data and RCP2.6,RCP4.5and RCP8.5future estimation data from The Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project（CMIP5）were used to analyze the dry/wet variations of seven typical areas of the East Monsoon Area of China from 1901—2100on a humid index detecting the dry/wet condition at the surface.It was found that from1901—2005,the humid index in each partition gradually decreased.The humid index decreased slowly in the Pearl River,Yangtze River,Huaihe River,and downstream of the Yellow River.The humid index was volatile in the Yellow River,Haihe River and the northeastern region.Therefore in the past 100 years,the East Monsoon Area of China was in drought condition.The model predicts that from 2006—2100,under different scenarios of greenhouse gas emission,the humid index in all partition will be volatile,while upstream of the Yellow River the humid index will gradually increase from 2006 to 2100,changes in the remaining regions will not be significant.