中文摘要：

针对OPA模型及其现有改进模型中未考虑电网拓扑演化的问题，提出了一种考虑电网拓扑演化的连锁故障模型。该模型结合OPA模型和电网拓扑的时空演化模型，OPA模型用以模拟负荷增长、线路改造等电网的演化过程和由于线路开断引起的连锁故障，时空演化模型用以模拟电网的拓扑演化。基于改进后的OPA模型分析了不同的演化参数对电网连锁故障的影响，仿真结果表明，中国北方电网与美国西部电网相比，小规模故障概率较大而大规模停电概率较小。本模型为研究不同的电网规划方案和参数在较长时间尺度上对电网演化的影响提供了一种途径。

英文摘要：

Topology evolvement is not considered in OPA model and its variants. To deal with this problem, an improved OPA model considering topology evolvement of power grid is proposed. This model integrates the basic OPA model with temporal and spatial evolving network model for power grid topology. The OPA model is used to simulate the evolvements such as load increase, transmission line update and cascading failures. While the temporal and spatial evolving network model is used to simulate the evolvement of topology. Influences of different evolving parameters on the blackouts are studied. Simulation results indicate that Northern China power grid has a larger probability for small-scale blackouts and a smaller probability for large-scale blackouts than Western America power grid. This model provides a way to study the long-term effects of different planning schemes and parameters for power grid.