回顾了贸易隐含碳以及增长与能源关系相关研究,推导投入产出模型以及计算CO_2排放强度矩阵,测算中国24个工业行业国内CO_2排放和出口贸易CO_2排放,证实部分行业属于高排放和高能耗行业,而且部分行业出口贸易国内碳排放比重较高;基于测算结果选择中国工业出口贸易隐含碳比重较高的11个行业,构建面板数据模型并进行平稳性检验、协整检验及个体固定效应检验,结果证实这些行业能源消耗与产出长期稳定关系和较大的弹性系数作用;最后提出政策建议,强调排放消费者负责制的排放责任认定原则,强化我国出口贸易隐含碳较高行业的产业结构低碳化,提高能源利用效率的技术创新。
This study reviews the research on embodied carbon in trade,its growth and its relationship with energy,derives an input-output model to calculate CO_2 emission matrix,and estimates the CO_2 emissions and export CO_2 emissions of 24 industrial sectors in China. The result shows that some of the industries have both high CO_2 emission and high consumptions of energy,and some export industries has high CO_2 emission in China. Then11 industries with high carbon emission are selected to build the panel data,and stationary,cointegration and individual fixed effect tests are performed. The results confirm the long-term stable and greatly elastic relationship between the energy consumption and industrial output. Finally,the policy implication is given that customers must take their own responsibility of the carbon emissions,a low-carbon economy should be promoted,and technological innovation should be highlighted.