中文摘要：

由一个风险中性供应商和一个风险规避零售商构成的供应链中,需求随机且受价格和促销努力的影响,在销售季节前,零售商获取一个需求预测信号。考虑零售商促销和供应商促销两种模式,得到最优零售价、批发价和促销努力水平,分析需求预测精确度对供应链成员决策和效用的影响,并对两种促销模式下的决策及效用进行对比分析。研究发现,在两种模式下提高预测精确度能够增加零售商效用;在零售商促销模式下,只有当促销努力有效性较高时,提高预测精确度才能够增加供应商效用;在供应商促销模式下,预测精确度提升对供应商总是不利的;当预测精确度较低（高）时,零售商与供应商都偏好于供应商（零售商）促销模式;当预测精确度处于中等水平时,会发生促销模式偏好的冲突。

英文摘要：

This study considers a supply chain consisting of a risk-natural supplier and a risk-a- verse retailer who faces a stochastic demand influenced by retail price and sales effort. Before selling season, the retailer makes demand forecasting and obtains an signal. Two types of sales promotion modes are discussed： retailer promotion （RP） and manufacturer promotion （MP）. For each promotion mode, we derive the optimal selling price, wholesale price and sales effort, and investigate the impacts of the demand forecasting accuracy on the decisions and utilities of channel members, and the prefer- ences for promotion modes. The results indicate that the retailer are better off with both promotion modes when improving demand forecasting accuracy. Under RP mode, improving forecasting accuracy is beneficial to the supplier only if the effectiveness of sales effort is relatively high. Under MP mode, improving forecasting accuracy is harmful to the supplier. Under certain conditions, both channel members prefer to MP （RP） mode when the forecasting accuracy is lower （higher）. If the forecasting accuracy is at a moderate level, there may be conflicts of preferences of promotion modes.