中文摘要：

低轨卫星轨道的高精度预报是一个非常重要而又棘手的问题.本文提出利用高精度离散的低轨卫星位置序列,采用Collocation积分法,通过动力学拟合,实现低轨卫星高精度短期预报的方法.该方法可以直接计算积分区间内任意时刻卫星的位置、速度及加速度.通过HY-2A及JASON-2卫星的精密星历数据,验证了该方法的效果.结果表明：HY-2A及JASON-2卫星的4 h弧长预报轨道3D RMS小于3 dm;预报12 h、24 h及48 h弧长轨道,其3D RMS分别小于2.3 m、4.3 m及8.6 m.

英文摘要：

High accuracy prediction of LEO orbit is a very important but difficult problem. This paper proposes the method that based on the LEO satellite discrete high accuracy positions sequence,with the Collocation integral method,realizesthe LEO satellite short term prediction orbit of high accuracy. The method can directly calculate the position,velocity and acceleration of the LEO satellite at any timein the integration interval. Using the HY-2A and JASON-2 satellites ephemeris data,verify the effect of this method. The experimental results show that： the prediction orbit of 4h arc length of HY-2A and JASON-2 satellites,the 3D RMSis less than 3 dm; the 12 h,24 h and 48 h arc length prediction orbit,its3 D RMS are less than 2. 3 m,4. 3 m and 8. 6 m respectively.