中文摘要：

本文首次以VAR模型测算了美国第二轮量化宽松政策（QE2）对美主要宏观经济指标的影响。为了进一步分析其传导机制以及对人民币汇率的影响,本文建立了包含实体经济、虚拟经济、货币和汇率的中国经济联立方程系统,并进行了政策模拟,检验了不同美联储新增国债购买规模下的人民币实际有效汇率指数。实证结果表明,中长期QE2加剧了人民币的升值压力。最后,针对QE2对人民币汇率和我国经济的影响,提出了政策建议。

英文摘要：

The paper is the first exercise to estimate the effects of Quantitative Easing Policy on the macro economy of the United States based on VAR model. In order to further analyze the transmission mechanism and the influence on China＇s economy and RMB exchange rate, the paper establishes simultaneous equations model to include the real economy, virtual economy, monetary and RMB exchange rate, and then runs policy simulations to explore different scenarios of the Federal Reserve monetary policy and their impacts on RMB exchange rate. The empirical results show that in the long term Quantitative Easing of the United States exacerbated the pres- sure on RMB appreciation. Finally, the paper gives some policy suggestions based on the empirical findings.