中文摘要：

摘要；基于岩土介质的非均匀性，提出基于破裂度可靠性的边坡灾变状态评价方法。该方法基于岩土力学实验获得的材料参数的均值、方差及分布形式，利用拉丁超立方抽样（LHS）生成符合其概率分布特征的岩土参数随机样本；利用连续一非连续数值模拟方法（CDEM）进行大量计算，获得每个样本参数对应的破裂度；基于大数定理，给出达到或超过设定灾变状态的概率。以凉水井滑坡抽象出的几何模型为例，探讨黏聚力及内摩擦角的概率分布对破裂度的影响规律，给出了设定计算参数下凉水井滑坡发生整体性失稳滑移的概率为60．7％。

英文摘要：

Because of the heterogeneity of rock and soil medium, a slope disaster status evaluation method based on the fracture degree and its reliability is presented. The mean, variance and the distribution form of the rock and soil mechanical parameters based on experiments are used to generate sample. A random sample of geotechnical parameters accord with the certain probability distribution is obtained by the Latin hypercube sampling（LHS） method. Then a large number of numerical cases with different parameters are executed by continuous- discontinuous element method（CDEM）, and fracture degree of each case is obtained. Based on the law of large number, the probability of the status which reaches and exceeds the catastrophic status can be obtained. Based on the geometric model of Liangshuijing landslide, the relationship between fracture degree and the probability distribution of cohesion and inner friction angle is discussed, and the probability of integral sliding with given parameters is 60.7%.