基于面板向量自回归模型,实证检验2007年第1季度至2015年第4季度东部、中部和西部三个区域消费信贷行为差异化影响的结果表明,各区域消费信贷对宏观经济发展具有差异化影响。因此,不同地区供给侧改革的立足点和导向应因地制宜。东部地区供给侧改革应着重消费信贷所支持的商品消费,进行针对性的商品创新和供给;中部地区消费信贷的推广要以供给侧创新和实际产品提供为前提;西部地区供给侧改革需要针对地区特点进行创新设计,带动与供给相对应的消费。供给侧改革的实施和推进要根据消费行径和特点,因为脱离需求的供给侧改革无法落实到实处,供给和需求的双结合才能形成经济的持续性增长动力。
Based on PVAR model, this article adopted the data from the first quarter 2007 to the fourth quarter 2015 to empirically analyze consumer credit behavior in three different regions:in the east, in the middle and in the west. The results showed that consumer credit had different influence on macro economy among regions. The foothold and guide of the supply side reform of different areas should adjust measures to local conditions. The supply side reform of eastern region should focus on commodity consumption supported by consumer credit, and carry out the innovation and supply of goods. The consumer credit of cen- tral region should focus more on supply side innovation and goods supply. The western re- gion should carry out innovative design according to its regional characteristics, and then drive the consumption correspondingly. The consumer behavior and characteristics should be the main contents for implementation and promotion of the supply side reform, because without taking the demand into consideration, the supply side reform is not practical. The consideration of supply and demand can form a sustained growth momentum for the economy.