中文摘要：

为准确、快速地估计变压器分接头位置,提出了基于改进递推贝叶斯估计的变压器分接头估计方法。该方法首先形成分接头位置可疑的变压器集合,然后计算可疑变压器在不同分接头位置下的状态估计残差,在此基础上,采用递推贝叶斯估计方法对分接头位置进行后验概率的递推估计。为提高计算效率,对基本的递推贝叶斯估计方法提出以下改进方案：采用线性残差修正方法或预测校正算法以有效减小每次递推时的残差计算量;在递推过程中逐次缩减估计范围;提出递推终止判据,以有效减少递推次数。在IEEE 39节点系统上的仿真计算表明,所提出的算法能准确、可靠地估计出正确分接头的位置,并显著提高递推贝叶斯估计的计算效率,具有较好的在线应用前景。

英文摘要：

An improved recursive Bayesian estimation approach with high efficiency and accuracy is proposed for the estimation of transformer tap positions.Transformers with suspect tap positions are identified firstly,then state estimation residuals for each tap position of the suspicious transformer are calculated.The posterior probability of all tap positions can be obtained with recursive Bayesian estimation approach.Furthermore,the computational efficiency are improved from the following aspects：a linear correction method and a prediction-correction method are proposed to estimate the residuals effectively;a heuristic method is given to reduce the set including the right tap position during the recursive process;and a stopping criterion for the recursive process is presented to avoid unnecessary estimation time.Simulations are carried on the IEEE 39-bus system to illustrate that the approach is reliable and with high efficiency,and thus has the good prospect of online applications.