中文摘要：

为明确农业用地变化的动态特征和影响要素,预测不同情景下的农业用地的时空变化格局。利用遥感和地理信息系统技术对黄河三角洲地区4期TM和ETM＋影像进行解译判读,获取区域内1992-2005年间农业用地动态演化特征,并构建元胞自动机模型对2001年和2005年的农业用地格局进行模拟。2001年和2005年农业用地模拟的总体精度分别为82.90%和84.48%,Kappa系数分别为0.658和0.689。模拟结果表明元胞自动机模型能够较好地模拟研究区域内农业用地动态变化,为农业用地的演变模拟提供了一种适用的工具。利用元胞自动机模型对4种情景下（面积减少5%、增加5%、10%和15%）的农业用地演变进行了预测。情景分析表明刁口故道附近的农业用地并不稳定,容易发生变化,是需要重点关注的区域。

英文摘要：

Aiming to investigate the dynamics of arable land,specify the underlying driving forces and project future spatiotemporal dynamics,categorical maps of arable land in the Yellow River Delta from 1992 to 2005 were obtained by via remote sensing and geographic information system techniques.Cellular automata models were calibrated with arable land maps in 1992,1996 and 2001,and were conducted to predict the arable land maps in 2001 and 2005.The overall accuracy of simulation in 2001 and 2005 were 82.90% and 84.48%,while the values of Cohen＇s kappa index amounted to 0.658 and 0.689.The results showed that the cellular automata model was able to simulate arable land dynamics effectively and could be a useful tool to project future patterns of arable land in the Yellow River Delta.Cellular automata model was conducted to predicted arable land patterns in 2010 under four different scenarios.Scenario analysis showed,due to the high level of soil salinity,arable land around the abandoned Yellow River of Diaokou was the most region to degenerate.