中文摘要：

利用1989-2009年期间9期遥感影像,通过遥感与GIS技术提取了内蒙古科左后旗阿古拉镇王巴哈噶湖泊面积,分析该湖泊的时空变化特征,在此基础上,结合该20年间气象资料曲线拟合对其原因进行灰色关联度分析,并建立多元回归模型对区域湖泊面积变化进行预测。分析表明,研究期内王巴哈嘎湖泊面积1995年达到湖泊面积最大值2.529 9km2,2007年达到最小值仅有1.044km2,湖泊面积呈波动状,但整体趋于萎缩状态。1988年以来,吉力吐的降雨与相对湿度逐年下降,气温逐年升高,气候呈现暖干化的特征。通过湖泊动态变化与水文气象因子关联度分析表明,湖泊面积和降水的变化存在较强的相关关系,关联度达到0.873 212,是湖泊变化的主要影响因子。通过建立气象要素与湖泊面积间的回归方程,表明两者存在显著性相关关系。

英文摘要：

By using the 1989-2009 remote sensing images,WangBa Lake area in the Kezuohou Banner Inner Mongolia is extracted by remote sensing and GIS technology.An analysis is made of the spatial variation and temporal characteristics of the lake.On the basis of the meteorological data of 20 years for the reason of the GRA analysis,multiple regression model is established to predict the change of regional lake areas,Analysis shows that,during the study period,the Wangba Lake area gets the maximum 2.529 9km2 in 1995,and reaches a minimum in 2007,only 1.044km2,the lake area is wave-shaped,but generally tends to shrink the state.Since 1988,in the area,the rainfall and humidity decline year by year,and the temperature rises year by year,the climate shows the warming and dry characteristics.The gray correlation degree analysis of dynamic changes in lakes with the meteorological factors shows that there is a significant relationship between precipitation and the fluctuations in the lake area,a correlaton of 0.873 212 percent,it is the main factor affecting the lake change,precipitation is the main reason for the changes.Regression of the meteorological elements with changes in the lake area shows they are linearly related.