中文摘要：

Xin'anjiang 模型，的降雨流量模块的联合 Muskingum 路由方法，模仿 hydrologic 方法的水阶段，散开波浪非线性的水阶段方法，并且即时错误修正方法与洪水转向和延迟的区域被用于预报的即时洪水和 Huai 河的规定。Xin'anjiang 模型被用来预报洪水分泌物自记水位计在上游并且支流。主要隧道和洪水转向区域的洪水路由基于 Muskingum 方法。下游的边界条件的水阶段与模仿 hydrologic 方法的水阶段和每生气的节的水阶段被计算被计算从对下游与散开波浪在上游非线性的水阶段方法。到洪水转向区域的来自主要隧道的输入洪水分泌物自记水位计与主要隧道分泌物的固定裂口比率被估计。在延迟的洪水内的洪水流动区域与水平衡方法作为一座水库被计算。错误系列最不方形的褪色记忆的忘记因素作为即时错误修正方法被使用预报分泌物和水舞台。作为一个例子，联合模型被用于洪水在 2007 洪水季节期间预报和 Huai 河上面的 Lutaizi 的上面的活动范围的规定。预报完成高精确性和联合模型提供的结果表演洪水与洪水转向和延迟的区域为一个复杂分水岭预报和规定的一个科学方法。

英文摘要：

A combination of the rainfall-runoff module of the Xin’anjiang model, the Muskingum routing method, the water stage simulating hydrologic method, the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method, and the real-time error correction method is applied to the real-time flood forecasting and regulation of the Huai River with flood diversion and retarding areas. The Xin’anjiang model is used to forecast the flood discharge hydrograph of the upstream and tributary. The flood routing of the main channel and flood diversion areas is based on the Muskingum method. The water stage of the downstream boundary condition is calculated with the water stage simulating hydrologic method and the water stages of each cross section are calculated from downstream to upstream with the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method. The input flood discharge hydrograph from the main channel to the flood diversion area is estimated with the fixed split ratio of the main channel discharge. The flood flow inside the flood retarding area is calculated as a reservoir with the water balance method. The faded-memory forgetting factor least square of error series is used as the real-time error correction method for forecasting discharge and water stage. As an example, the combined models were applied to flood forecasting and regulation of the upper reaches of the Huai River above Lutaizi during the 2007 flood season. The forecast achieves a high accuracy and the results show that the combined models provide a scientific way of flood forecasting and regulation for a complex watershed with flood diversion and retarding areas.