中文摘要：

针对当前交会轨迹安全分析缺乏有效的定量评价方法,研究提出了两种考虑实际交会过程导航偏差和控制偏差的安全性定量评价指标,分别是交会过程中任意时刻失效后追踪器的位置误差分布3σ椭球与目标器控制区域的最小距离和两个飞行器的最大瞬时碰撞概率。研究了这两个指标的快速简化计算方法;并基于协方差分析描述函数法（CADET）,建立了非线性交会下考虑导航偏差和控制偏差的相对状态及其协方差矩阵的传播模型。通过两个仿真算例验证了两个指标的合理性、快速性和准确性,并且可适应于在线轨迹安全性分析和一般情况下的线性和非线性交会安全轨迹设计。

英文摘要：

For the fact that the quantitative analysis of safety for safe trajectory design is poor in the current research, two quantitative performance indexes of space rendezvous trajectory safety are investigated in consideration of navigation er- rors and control errors. One index is defined as the minimum distance between 3σ ellipsoid of the chaser vehicle and control zone of the target vehicle after the arbitrary failure of the rendezvous process,and the other is the maximum instantaneous collision probability of the two vehicles. The simplified,but more quickly calculation method for these two indexes is pro- posed. Based on the covariance analysis description equation technique （ CADET） ,propagation models of mean vector and the covariance matrix of relative state are deduced for nonlinear rendezvous in consideration of the navigation errors and con- trol errors. Rationality,efficiency and accuracy of the two performance indexes are testified by two simulation examples. The results show that both of the indexes could be used for on-orbit safety performance analysis and are available for both linear and nonlinear rendezvous safe trajectory design.