中文摘要：

一个突发事件的发生往往引发次生灾害,形成灾害链。除了常见的连锁反应外,还存在各种可能的连锁隐患。本文的研究目的是找出这些潜在的连锁反应隐患。从共现分析的角度出发,选取中国期刊全文数据库1989～2008年的研究文献,以突发事件名称为主题进行词频分析,构造共现矩阵,计算共现率;然后,根据共现率构造突发事件关联网络,分析网络性质,并将其应用到次生灾害预警过程中。通过50对实际发生的灾害链,验证了共现率表示灾害关联的合理性。

英文摘要：

The occurrence of an emergency often leads to secondary disasters.In addition to the common disaster chain,there are various chains of hidden dangers.This paper aims to identify some hidden disaster chain.First of all,starting from the point of view of co-occurrence,this paper identifies the collection of emergencies and selects about 20 years＇ research literatures from China Journal full-text database between 1989 and 2008.The paper analyses the frequency of emergency as theme, builds the co-occurrence matrix and calculates the rate of co-occurrence.Secondly,according to the rate of co-occurrence between emergencies,this paper creates the emergency network,analyses factors of the network and illustrates the applications of the emergency network model in the early-warning of secondary disasters.The paper tests the rationality of using the rate of co-occurrence to representing the possibility of the occurrence of disaster chain by comparing with 50 disaster chains which have happened already.