为检测能源消息对燃料油期货市场收益及其波动的影响,在分析能源消息对中美燃料油期货市场影响关系的基础上,利用基于混合分布的随机波动模型对中美燃料油期货市场进行了实证分析.研究结果表明,能源消息对中美燃料油期货收益及其波动均具有显著影响,且能源消息对中国的影响力要大于美国;相对而言,国内和国际能源消息对美国燃料油期货市场的影响具有杠杆效应,而对中国燃料油期货市场的影响却具有反杠杆效应;进一步地,虽然中国(美国)燃料油期货市场收益仅存在国际能源消息的提前反映能力,但中国(美国)燃料油期货市场波动均具有国内和国际能源消息的提前反映能力.
To investigate the impacts of energy news on the returns and volatilities in fuel oil futures market,this paper empirically analyzes the two fuel oil futures markets in China and U.S.using stochastic volatility with mixture distribution models based on the influence relationships of the impacts of energy news.The results show that there are significant effects in the impacts of energy news on there turns and volatilities of Chinese and American fuel oil futures markets.Moreover,the impacts of energy news on Chinese fuel oil futures market are greater than those on U.S.fuel oil futures market.There exists leverage effects in the impacts of the domestic and international energy news on U.S.fuel oil futures market,whereas there are inverse leverage effects in the impacts of the domestic and international energy news on Chinese fuel oil futures market.Furthermore,although the returns of Chinese(U.S.) fuel oil futures market only have lead-reflection ability in international energy news,the volatilities of Chinese(U.S.) fuel oil futures market have lead-reflection ability in both domestic and international energy news.