中文摘要：

利用1962—2011年 HadISST海表温度资料和中国160站逐月降水等资料通过回归和相关分析等方法，分析了中国近海冬季海表温度（SST）的长期升高及其与中国冬季降水的关系。研究表明，近50年来中国近海冬季海表温度呈现明显的长期升高趋势。进一步分析发现，中国近海冬季海表温度的升高与长江中下游及以南地区冬季降水的增加存在显著的相关。最后，利用全球大气环流模式（CAM5．1）模拟研究了近海海温长期升高对中国降水的影响，模式模拟结果很好地验证了观测结果，表明中国近海冬季海表温度的长期升高确实对中国冬季降水存在影响。

英文摘要：

In terms of the HadISST dataset and monthly precipitation at the 160 stations of China during 1962-2011,the long-term change in sea surface temperatures （SST）over the marginal seas of China （the Bohai,Yellow,East China and South Chi-na Sea）in winter and its relationship with the winter precipitation over the mainland of China are investigated by the methods of regression and correlation.The results show that the winter SST over the marginal seas exhibit significant long-term warming trends in the past 50 years.A pronounced increase in the winter precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is closely related to the long-term trends of this winter SST warming over the marginal seas.Finally,a global general cir-culation model （CAM5 .1 ）is also employed to simulate the effect of the long-term warming over the marginal seas of China on the precipitation in China.It is found that simulated results are consistent with observations,which further confirms the impact of this long-term change in SST on the precipitation in China.