本文运用多个行业的面板数据,考察了汇改后的人民币汇率变化对我国出El商品价格的传递效应以及不同行业的依市定价行为。研究发现:汇改后的汇率变化对我国大部分行业的出口商品价格具有长期影响,短期影响并不明显,国内出口企业只能在长期中逐步消化汇改后汇率的升值性变化;而从总体上看,大部分行业的出口商只能通过调整成本加成的形式靠自身利润的压缩将汇率变动吸收掉,仅有小部分行业能将汇率变化的50%以上传递出去,故汇改后汇率升值的大部分是由国内出口企业自己承受和消化掉的。这意味着汇改后人民币汇率的持续升值确实给实体经济中占有相当比重的出口行业带来了很大的影响。
This paper investigates the RMB exchange rate pass through (ERPT) to export prices and the corre- sponding pricing to market (PTM) at the industry level by applying panel data of many industries. It is revealed that the ERPT effects of most industries are insignificant in the short term though export prices of most industries can respond remarkably to exchange rate fluctuations in the long run. In other words, when confronted with ex- change rate fluctuations, domestic exporters in the majority of industries have to absorb shocks gradually in the long term. Even the exporters with relatively weak PTM ability have to absorb approximately 50% of the ex- change rate shocks, indicating most shocks (the RMB appreciation) after the exchange rate regime reform have been absorbed with only a few rises in the export prices. Moreover, there are significant disparities in the ERPT effects and PTM behaviors across industries after the exchange rate regime reform. This means that after the re- form of exchange rate regime continued appreciation of the RMB exchange rate do give accounted for a consider- able proportion in the real economy export industry has brought a great impact.