中文摘要：

大熊猫种群数据是掌握大熊猫种群动态变化的重要依据,因此大熊猫种群数据建模对保护大熊猫具有重要意义.本文针对现有种群动态性建模方法无法捕获复杂生态系统的随机效应和可扩展性差的问题,提出一种使用概率膜系统对成都大熊猫繁育研究基地大熊猫种群数据建模的方法.基于成都大熊猫繁育研究基地大熊猫谱系数据,设计了一个具有两层膜结构,形式化表示大熊猫生态系统的一系列对象和规则的概率膜系统模型.仿真实验结果表明,该模型能反映大熊猫种群动态变化趋势,给管理者提供参考.

英文摘要：

Giant panda population data are important bases for knowing the population dynamics of giant pandas. Thus, it is significant to model giant panda population data for conservation. To solve the problems that the existing methods for modeling population dynamics were not able to capture the randomness in a complex ecological system and have bad extensibility, a probability membrane system for modeling the giant panda ecosystem is proposed based on the data from Chengdu Research Base of Giant Panda Breeding. On the basis of giant panda pedigree, a probability membrane system is designed with a membrane structure consisting of two nested membranes, a series of objects and evolution rules for representing the giant panda ecosystem. The simulation results show that the model can reflect the dynamic changes of giant panda population and therefore can provide reference for managers.